Platts pre-report survey of analysts’ EIA/API estimates suggests 3-million-barrel build in US crude oil stocks
New York - January 30, 2012
Platts Survey of Analysts
Crude oil stocks up 3 million barrels
Gasoline stocks up 1 million barrels
Distillates stocks up 1.2 million barrels
Refinery utilization, or run rate, down 0.2 percentage points to 82%
Weekly oil data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) is expected to show a 3-million-barrel build in US commercial crude inventories for the week ending January 27, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.
API is scheduled to release its weekly data at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's weekly oil statistics will be released at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) Wednesday.
"We tend to see a sizable build in crude at this time of the year," said Jacob Correll, commodity analyst at Summit Energy, who estimated that crude stocks should rise about 3.5 million barrels.
For this reporting week, historical data shows that crude stocks have been higher throughout the last four years, noted analyst Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover. However, in the previous three years in a row, crude stocks drew, he noted.
According to the five-year average, crude stocks are expected by analysts to rise by some 4 million barrels, based on Platts data.
At the same time, crude oil imports are expected to increase, after having risen in four of the last seven years, while refinery utilization has been lower in four of the last seven years and has generally been lower every other year recently, noted Beutel.
Analysts on average estimate a 0.2 percentage point drop in refinery utilization to 82% of capacity, based on EIA data.
US gasoline stocks are estimated to rise by 1 million barrels, which is typical for this time of the year, ahead of the summer driving season, said analysts.
"We could see a bounce back in gasoline stocks," said Correll, after gasoline stocks marginally declined by 390,000 barrels for the week ending January 20.
Based on the five-year average, US gasoline stocks could build by as much as 2.5 million barrels, according to Platts data.
Beutel said gasoline stocks have also been higher in four of the last five, and six of the last seven years, with a five-year average build of 2.602 million barrels and a seven-year average build of 1.986 million barrels.
Distillate stocks in the US are estimated to fall by 1.2 million barrels, as stocks of heating oil likely declined due to cooler weather in the New England region, said Correll.
Distillate stocks have been lower in four of the last five years, and have a five-year average draw of 1.417 million barrels and a seven-year average draw of 1.284 million barrels.
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