The Platts pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API estimates suggests a draw of 1.75 million barrels in US oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks down 1.75 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks up 1.8 million barrels
- Distillates stocks up 1.3 million barrels
- Refinery utilization or run rate unchanged at 84.7%
New York, NY - December 30, 2008
Analysts expect a 1.75 million barrel draw in US commercial crude oil stocks when the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and American Petroleum Institute (API) release weekly data Wednesday, according to a Platts survey just released.
US crude import levels are not apt to recover from last week's anemic 9.118 million barrels per day (b/d), according to EIA, with end-of-year tax considerations keeping tankers out at sea and fog in the Houston Ship Channel causing erratic traffic.The Houston Ship Channel suspended traffic December 25, but resumed outbound boardings December 26.
"The previous weeks' 555,000 b/d drop in crude import levels was also affected by multiple closings of the Houston Ship Channel due to foggy conditions," said Linda Rafield, senior oil analyst and editor of the weekly Platts Futures and Derivatives Review.
Refinery utilization is expected by analysts to be unchanged at 84.7%. "Refiners have little need to up output with demand growth still sputtering," said Rafield.
Analysts expect gasoline inventories to show a build of 1.7 million barrels. "With demand showing little recovery despite substantially lower prices at the pump, inventories will continue to climb," Rafield said.
Implied gasoline demand fell 308,000 b/d to 8.867 million b/d the week ending December 19, according to EIA.
Analysts also anticipate a build in distillate stocks of 1.3 million barrels, given the fact that a strong NYMEX heating oil crack spread encourages high levels of output at the expense of gasoline production.
The NYMEX heating oil crack spread was still running at a $16-per-barrel premium to the RBOB crack the week ending December 26.